Conflict Index (CI)

Description

The conflict index enhances the acs{PET} metric with a collision probability estimation as well as a severity factor [Alhajyaseen2015]. For this, the estimated kinetic energy that would have been released assuming a hypothetical collision between \(A_1\) and \(A_2\) at their states when entering (\(A_2\)) resp. exiting (\(A_1\)) the conflict area is estimated:

\[\mathit{CI}(A_1, A_2, \mathit{CA}, \alpha, \beta) = \frac{\alpha \Delta K_e}{e^{\beta \mathit{PET}(A_1, A_2, \mathit{CA})}}\]

where the denominator is a collision probability estimation.

Therefore, it is proposed that the actual collision probability is proportional to \(e^{- \beta \mathit{PET}(A_1, A_2, \mathit{CA})}\) with \(\beta\) being a calibration factor dependent on the scenario factors, e.g. country, road geometry, or visibility and \([\beta] = \text{s}^{-1}\). The nominator represents a collision severity measure, where \(\alpha \in [0,1]\) is again a calibration factor for the proportion of energy that is transferred from the vehicle’s body to its passengers and \(\Delta K_e\) is the predicted absolute change in kinetic energy before and after the predicted collision.

\(\Delta K_e\) is estimated based on the masses as well as velocities and angles at time of entering (\(A_2\)) resp. exiting (\(A_1\)) the conflict area.

Properties

Run-time capability

None, since PET can only be determined a-posteriori

Target values

None given

Subject type

Any two actors, but most suitable for road vehicles (automated and humans)

Scenario type

Any scenario with a conflict area (containing a potential intersection point)

Inputs

CA, \(\theta_1(t_{\mathit{exit}}(A_1,\mathit{CA}))\), \(\theta_2(t_{\mathit{entry}}(A_2,\mathit{CA}))\), \(v_1(t_{\mathit{exit}}(A_1,\mathit{CA}))\), \(v_2(t_{\mathit{entry}}(A_2,\mathit{CA}))\), \(m_1, m_2\), \(\mathit{PET}(A_1, A_2, \mathit{CA})\), calibration factors \(\alpha, \beta\)

Output scale

\((-\infty, \infty)\), joule (\(\text{kg}\cdot \text{m}^2 \cdot \text{s}^{-2}\)), ratio scale

Reliability

Comparable to PET

Validity

Initial validation was performed, exponential relationship to number of collisions over varying intersections was shown with a reasonably high coefficient of determination [Alhajyaseen2015]

Sensitivity

Depends on the sensitivity of PET, but potentially increased due to consideration of severity

Specificity

Depends on the specificity of PET, but potentially increased due to consideration of severity

Prediction model

None, since a-posteriori